Arctic Prediction in a Changing Climate: Understanding Key Processes and Challenges
LOCATION
Society of Chemical Industry (SCI)
14-15 Belgrave Square
London
SW1X 8PS
United Kingdom
The Arctic is the most rapidly warming region on Earth and facing considerable environmental change. These changes are beginning to alter the way humanity uses and exploits the Arctic region with commercial activities, such as tourism, fishing, mineral and oil extraction, and shipping, on the increase. Increased human activity in the Arctic has implications for safety and environmental conservation, and can cause tensions for local communities who rely on subsistence hunting and fishing, and community re-supply.
Environmental prediction for the Arctic therefore is becoming increasingly important but the capability to accurately predict the Arctic atmosphere–sea-ice–ocean system is relatively immature with short-term forecasts significantly less accurate than for the mid-latitudes. Some of the challenges for forecasting systems in the Arctic include: a relatively sparse observing network; some satellite-based observations are hard to use because of the snow and ice-covered surfaces; it is difficult and expensive to make detailed research-quality observations; and the dominant physical processes are different to those at mid-latitudes and the tropics.
To address these issues, the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was developed as one of the key elements of the WMO’s Polar Prediction Project. Speakers at this meeting will discuss recent advances, and challenges associated with understanding and prediction of key Arctic processes using numerical models and observations. This will include new insights provided by several field campaigns and modelling experiments carried out under the YOPP umbrella.
AGENDA
21st Nov 2018 14:00 - 18:00
Session Chair: Ed Blockley
Time | Title | Speaker |
---|---|---|
14:00 | Introduction and Welcome | - |
14:05 | The Year Of Polar Prediction: An Overview | Prof I Renfrew |
14:15 | What are the challenges and priorities for improved prediction and climate monitoring of the Arctic? | Dr I Sandu |
14:45 | What are the limitations of Arctic sea ice remote sensing products, and what opportunities can they provide for improving predictive skill of Arctic forecasts? | Dr E Blockley |
15:15 | Chasing the source of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) - atmosphere-ocean coupling in the Iceland and Greenland Seas | Prof I Renfrew |
15:45 | Refreshment Break | - |
16:15 | Mixing it up: What connects Arctic clouds and sea ice? | Prof I Brooks |
16:45 | The view from above Arctic snow at 89-325 GHz: What can surface emissivity on these channels tell us about snowpack stratigraphy? | Dr C Harlow |
17:15 | Why tundra snow is upside down in models, and why it matters | Prof R Essery |
17:45 | Meeting Close | - |
This meeting is part of the Royal Meteorological Society Meetings programme, open to all, from expert to enthusiast, for topical discussions on the latest advances in weather and climate. Free to attend. Non members are welcome.
The Arctic is the most rapidly warming region on Earth and facing considerable environmental change. These changes are beginning to alter the way humanity uses and exploits the Arctic region with commercial activities, such as tourism, fishing, mineral and oil extraction, and shipping, on the increase. Increased human activity in the Arctic has implications for safety and environmental conservation, and can cause tensions for local communities who rely on subsistence hunting and fishing, and community re-supply.
Environmental prediction for the Arctic therefore is becoming increasingly important but the capability to accurately predict the Arctic atmosphere–sea-ice–ocean system is relatively immature with short-term forecasts significantly less accurate than for the mid-latitudes. Some of the challenges for forecasting systems in the Arctic include: a relatively sparse observing network; some satellite-based observations are hard to use because of the snow and ice-covered surfaces; it is difficult and expensive to make detailed research-quality observations; and the dominant physical processes are different to those at mid-latitudes and the tropics.
To address these issues, the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was developed as one of the key elements of the WMO’s Polar Prediction Project. Speakers at this meeting will discuss recent advances, and challenges associated with understanding and prediction of key Arctic processes using numerical models and observations. This will include new insights provided by several field campaigns and modelling experiments carried out under the YOPP umbrella.
AGENDA
21st Nov 2018 14:00 - 18:00
Session Chair: Ed Blockley
Time | Title | Speaker |
---|---|---|
14:00 | Introduction and Welcome | - |
14:05 | The Year Of Polar Prediction: An Overview | Prof I Renfrew |
14:15 | What are the challenges and priorities for improved prediction and climate monitoring of the Arctic? | Dr I Sandu |
14:45 | What are the limitations of Arctic sea ice remote sensing products, and what opportunities can they provide for improving predictive skill of Arctic forecasts? | Dr E Blockley |
15:15 | Chasing the source of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) - atmosphere-ocean coupling in the Iceland and Greenland Seas | Prof I Renfrew |
15:45 | Refreshment Break | - |
16:15 | Mixing it up: What connects Arctic clouds and sea ice? | Prof I Brooks |
16:45 | The view from above Arctic snow at 89-325 GHz: What can surface emissivity on these channels tell us about snowpack stratigraphy? | Dr C Harlow |
17:15 | Why tundra snow is upside down in models, and why it matters | Prof R Essery |
17:45 | Meeting Close | - |
This meeting is part of the Royal Meteorological Society Meetings programme, open to all, from expert to enthusiast, for topical discussions on the latest advances in weather and climate. Free to attend. Non members are welcome.