

Extreme Temperatures over a Range of Climate States
LOCATION
Augustine United Church
41 George IV Bridge
Edinburgh
EH1 1EL
Understanding the sensitivity of extreme temperatures to climate change is a key scientific challenge with important societal implications. Yet basic questions persist regarding extreme temperatures, including why hot days and the average day warm at different rates and the role of local versus remote processes in controlling extreme temperatures over land and ocean.
Here we use a suite of simulations performed using idealised and state-of-the-art climate models to explore extreme temperatures over a range of climate states. In tropical regions, the responses of extreme temperatures (i.e., high percentiles of daily near-surface temperature) to climate warming contrast strongly over land and ocean. Over land, warming is amplified for hot days relative to the average day. But over ocean, hot days generally warm less than the average day, implying a tightening of the temperature distribution. The contrasting responses of tropical extreme temperatures over land and ocean are interpreted using a theory based on atmospheric convection. The theory predicts that warming of extremes relative to the average temperature depends on the climatological specific humidity on hot days. Over land, warming is amplified for hot days because they are dry relative to the average day. But over ocean, warming is suppressed for hot days because they are relatively moist. Changes in relative humidity affect the scaling of extreme temperatures over both land and ocean. Extensions of the theory to understand the sensitivity of extratropical extreme temperatures to climate change are discussed.
Speakers
Mike Byrne
Dr Mike Byrne is a Reader at the University of St Andrews where he leads the Climate Dynamics Lab. The overarching goal of his research is to advance fundamental physical knowledge of climate and climate change. The lab’s research philosophy is distinctive, combining a hierarchy of computer models with theory and observational data to develop a robust understanding of climate. Dr Byrne was an author of the UN IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report and is currently co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Dynamics Panel. His lab’s research is supported by funding from the European Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Leverhulme Trust, and Carnegie Trust. Dr Byrne received a bachelor’s degree in physics from Trinity College Dublin, a master’s degree from the University of Oxford, and a PhD in climate physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the supervision of Paul O’Gorman. He was a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zürich and a fellow at Imperial College and Oxford prior to joining the faculty at St Andrews in 2018.
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The Royal Meteorological Society has a number of local centres across the UK, where meetings are held throughout the year. The Scotland Local Centre are currently hosting monthly meetings which can be attended in person or virtually. For further information on the local centre, upcoming events or to be added to the mailing list, please contact scotland@rmets.org.
Understanding the sensitivity of extreme temperatures to climate change is a key scientific challenge with important societal implications. Yet basic questions persist regarding extreme temperatures, including why hot days and the average day warm at different rates and the role of local versus remote processes in controlling extreme temperatures over land and ocean.
Here we use a suite of simulations performed using idealised and state-of-the-art climate models to explore extreme temperatures over a range of climate states. In tropical regions, the responses of extreme temperatures (i.e., high percentiles of daily near-surface temperature) to climate warming contrast strongly over land and ocean. Over land, warming is amplified for hot days relative to the average day. But over ocean, hot days generally warm less than the average day, implying a tightening of the temperature distribution. The contrasting responses of tropical extreme temperatures over land and ocean are interpreted using a theory based on atmospheric convection. The theory predicts that warming of extremes relative to the average temperature depends on the climatological specific humidity on hot days. Over land, warming is amplified for hot days because they are dry relative to the average day. But over ocean, warming is suppressed for hot days because they are relatively moist. Changes in relative humidity affect the scaling of extreme temperatures over both land and ocean. Extensions of the theory to understand the sensitivity of extratropical extreme temperatures to climate change are discussed.
Speakers
Mike Byrne
Dr Mike Byrne is a Reader at the University of St Andrews where he leads the Climate Dynamics Lab. The overarching goal of his research is to advance fundamental physical knowledge of climate and climate change. The lab’s research philosophy is distinctive, combining a hierarchy of computer models with theory and observational data to develop a robust understanding of climate. Dr Byrne was an author of the UN IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report and is currently co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Dynamics Panel. His lab’s research is supported by funding from the European Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Leverhulme Trust, and Carnegie Trust. Dr Byrne received a bachelor’s degree in physics from Trinity College Dublin, a master’s degree from the University of Oxford, and a PhD in climate physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the supervision of Paul O’Gorman. He was a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zürich and a fellow at Imperial College and Oxford prior to joining the faculty at St Andrews in 2018.
Registration
REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED
Registration for this event is closed.
If you have any queries with regards to this event or require any further information please contact us at meetings@rmets.org.
We take data privacy seriously. Please read the RMetS privacy policy to find out more.
The Royal Meteorological Society has a number of local centres across the UK, where meetings are held throughout the year. The Scotland Local Centre are currently hosting monthly meetings which can be attended in person or virtually. For further information on the local centre, upcoming events or to be added to the mailing list, please contact scotland@rmets.org.