VIRTUAL | The Evolution of Weather Forecasting in the UK
LOCATION
The changing role of the forecaster from the pre-computer age to the modern day
SPEAKER: Martin Young (Met Office – retired)
ABSTRACT: In the pre-computer era weather forecasts were produced empirically, based on very limited data, reliant on the forecasters’ knowledge and experience. Major errors were quite common less than 24 hours ahead. Nowadays the greatest challenge is dealing with the enormous range of sometimes conflicting computer forecast products, some with very high resolution, stretching many days or even weeks ahead, as well as multiple observational data sources. Yet the forecaster must still be capable of spotting often subtle features which may have an important bearing on the forecast even just a few hours ahead - all of this set against expectations which are much higher nowadays.
Using examples of UK weather events, including some from my own experience, I review how the role of the central guidance forecaster at the Met Office has evolved through the decades and demonstrate how the weather forecaster requires a radically different skill set today compared to 50 years ago and earlier.
BIOGRAPHY: Martin worked at the Met Office for 40 years, many of which were in operational weather forecasting, including over ten years as a Chief Forecaster. He also spent time in research, a substantial proportion of which related to the application of satellite imagery to forecasting. He contributed papers to Royal Meteorological Society journals over several decades, many with an emphasis on interesting weather events from a forecaster’s perspective. Retirement at the end of 2020 allowed Martin to pursue his longstanding interest in the history of operational weather forecasting in the UK.
The changing role of the forecaster from the pre-computer age to the modern day
SPEAKER: Martin Young (Met Office – retired)
ABSTRACT: In the pre-computer era weather forecasts were produced empirically, based on very limited data, reliant on the forecasters’ knowledge and experience. Major errors were quite common less than 24 hours ahead. Nowadays the greatest challenge is dealing with the enormous range of sometimes conflicting computer forecast products, some with very high resolution, stretching many days or even weeks ahead, as well as multiple observational data sources. Yet the forecaster must still be capable of spotting often subtle features which may have an important bearing on the forecast even just a few hours ahead - all of this set against expectations which are much higher nowadays.
Using examples of UK weather events, including some from my own experience, I review how the role of the central guidance forecaster at the Met Office has evolved through the decades and demonstrate how the weather forecaster requires a radically different skill set today compared to 50 years ago and earlier.
BIOGRAPHY: Martin worked at the Met Office for 40 years, many of which were in operational weather forecasting, including over ten years as a Chief Forecaster. He also spent time in research, a substantial proportion of which related to the application of satellite imagery to forecasting. He contributed papers to Royal Meteorological Society journals over several decades, many with an emphasis on interesting weather events from a forecaster’s perspective. Retirement at the end of 2020 allowed Martin to pursue his longstanding interest in the history of operational weather forecasting in the UK.