VIRTUAL MEETING | The Exceptional Winter of 2019-2020 explored through Global Teleconnections
LOCATION
SPEAKER| Nick Silkstone, Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Met Office
BIO| Nick enjoyed studying for BSc Hons in Earth and Environmental Sciences from Lancaster University between 2004-2007, during this time within a broad degree he specialised in Atmospheric Sciences wherever possible. Since he joined the Met Office as an Operational Meteorologist in January 2008 he has accrued a vast amount of experience, this includes 7 years of weather forecasting for RAF operations at locations across the UK and the Falkland Islands. In 2016 he moved into civil aviation forecasting providing forecast products and advice for the UK aviation industry, accompanied by a detachment to open up the Met Office at St Helena Airport in 2016 and a secondment to Antarctica with the British Antarctic Survey in 2017 and 2018. Now a Deputy Chief Meteorologist in the Met Office Guidance Unit, he still retains a broad focus ranging from Nowcasting (0-6 hours forecasting), UK medium range weather forecasting, and Global weather guidance for customers ranging from the British Government, to the European Commission and the United Nations.
ABSTRACT| Winter 2019/2020 was exceptionally mild and wet in the UK, and with record-breaking seasonal temperatures in parts of northwest Europe and Russia. Can we predict such an unusual seasonal event like this? While Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have vastly improved performance at shorter lead times, they invariably struggle between extended medium range (>1 week) and the seasonal period: this remains one of the toughest challenges in forecasting.
In operational weather forecasting we attempt to use global teleconnections to help add detail, context and confidence to forecasts for this extended period. Prior to winter 2019/2020, several such teleconnections strongly suggested a milder, wetter winter than average, which agreed with NWP and added confidence to the winter seasonal forecast. The talk aimed to first answer the question “what is a teleconnection?” and then delved into how we began using these to aid the formulation and confidence of extended medium range and seasonal forecasts at the Met Office.
This was a 30min talk followed by a 10min Q&A. Meeting opened 6.50pm onwards for attendees to join. Event started promptly at 7pm.
For anyone who was not able to join us, or who may want to watch back the recording, you can now view the presentation on our YouTube channel below.
SPEAKER| Nick Silkstone, Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Met Office
BIO| Nick enjoyed studying for BSc Hons in Earth and Environmental Sciences from Lancaster University between 2004-2007, during this time within a broad degree he specialised in Atmospheric Sciences wherever possible. Since he joined the Met Office as an Operational Meteorologist in January 2008 he has accrued a vast amount of experience, this includes 7 years of weather forecasting for RAF operations at locations across the UK and the Falkland Islands. In 2016 he moved into civil aviation forecasting providing forecast products and advice for the UK aviation industry, accompanied by a detachment to open up the Met Office at St Helena Airport in 2016 and a secondment to Antarctica with the British Antarctic Survey in 2017 and 2018. Now a Deputy Chief Meteorologist in the Met Office Guidance Unit, he still retains a broad focus ranging from Nowcasting (0-6 hours forecasting), UK medium range weather forecasting, and Global weather guidance for customers ranging from the British Government, to the European Commission and the United Nations.
ABSTRACT| Winter 2019/2020 was exceptionally mild and wet in the UK, and with record-breaking seasonal temperatures in parts of northwest Europe and Russia. Can we predict such an unusual seasonal event like this? While Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have vastly improved performance at shorter lead times, they invariably struggle between extended medium range (>1 week) and the seasonal period: this remains one of the toughest challenges in forecasting.
In operational weather forecasting we attempt to use global teleconnections to help add detail, context and confidence to forecasts for this extended period. Prior to winter 2019/2020, several such teleconnections strongly suggested a milder, wetter winter than average, which agreed with NWP and added confidence to the winter seasonal forecast. The talk aimed to first answer the question “what is a teleconnection?” and then delved into how we began using these to aid the formulation and confidence of extended medium range and seasonal forecasts at the Met Office.
This was a 30min talk followed by a 10min Q&A. Meeting opened 6.50pm onwards for attendees to join. Event started promptly at 7pm.
For anyone who was not able to join us, or who may want to watch back the recording, you can now view the presentation on our YouTube channel below.