VIRTUAL | Post-Graduate Showcase
LOCATION
Post-Graduate Showcase for the two prize winners from the RMetS Student and Early Career Conference which took place in 2021.
TITLE: Where will we holiday in Europe in the future?
SPEAKER: Ms Megan Pearce, Met. Office
ABSTRACT: Climate is a common factor that influences the choices of holiday-makers in terms of destination and time of year to travel; both associated with a perceived favourability towards certain conditions and the ‘acceptable comfort level’ of the tourist. Under future warming scenarios, tourism will undoubtedly be impacted by increases in both mean and extreme temperatures, as well as changes in precipitation, humidity and sunshine duration. Here, we looked at an approach for assessing the impact of the future climate on tourist destination favourability, through calculation of the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI). This is an established measure that links physical climate with human comfort to assess destination favourability for tourism. Here, for the first time, we presented an overview of the TCI method and its application to UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate model data. In order to capture the range of physical climate impacts on holiday-makers, the TCI is calculated from a variety of meteorological variables, providing a single score that can be used to make objective comparisons. Not all of the required variables are included within these data sets, adding a layer of complexity to the TCI calculation; the approach for the derivation of these variables from the available climate model data is described and explained. The work provides an update to previous literature studies by using the latest climate projections. Through the application to such climate projections, it is possible to use TCI as an objective comparator between different seasons, geographical regions, warming scenarios and time periods to understand the differences in favourability to tourists. The use of these results are deemed particularly relevant for those responsible for the wider planning of the sector – not limited to those in hospitality, recreation, and transport
TITLE: Comparing different methods for detecting Atmospheric Blocking
SPEAKER: Mr Charlie Suitters, University of Reading
ABSTRACT: Atmospheric blocking is the term given to the circulation pattern that describes a persistent, quasi-stationary anticyclone, typically found in the mid- and high-latitudes. Blocks prevent the usual eastward passage of extratropical cyclones and are associated with prolonged periods of suppressed precipitation, weak winds, and often extreme temperature anomalies. Despite their obvious impact on society, the mechanisms contributing to their lifecycle are still not fully understood. This is partly due to the lack of an objective blocking definition and the existence of many methods to identify blocks in reanalysis, numerical weather prediction (NWP) and global climate models (GCMs). Blocks can take on a range of different signature shapes within their lifetime, adding another complexity to their detection. This work explores the representation of blocking using two contrasting methods of detection in reanalysis. Each method demonstrates that climatological blocking activity maxima in the Northern Hemisphere are found over the North Atlantic, Europe, Greenland, and the North Pacific; and that in the hemispheric mean, blocking is most common in winter. However, each blocking detection method varies in the frequency of blocked days in each region, with methods detecting blocking using anomaly fields of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) recording around twice as much blocking as a method using meridional Z500 gradient reversals. Case study events are also examined, where it is shown that Z500 blocking signatures can change throughout the event. This dynamic behaviour of blocking leads to discrepancies in detection using each method. This work highlights the shortcomings in using a single detection method when studying atmospheric blocking, suggesting a combination of methods may be better suited to capture a range of different blocking scenarios.
The meeting opened at 5:50 pm for attendees to join and the event started promptly at 6 pm. Megan Pearce is the first speaker and talked for 25 minutes followed by 5 minutes for questions. Charlie Suitters began his talk at 6:30 pm and his presentation lasted for 25 minutes with 5 minutes for questions.
VIRTUAL | Post-Graduate Showcase
Post-Graduate Showcase for the two prize winners from the RMetS Student and Early Career Conference which took place in 2021.
TITLE: Where will we holiday in Europe in the future?
SPEAKER: Ms Megan Pearce, Met. Office
ABSTRACT: Climate is a common factor that influences the choices of holiday-makers in terms of destination and time of year to travel; both associated with a perceived favourability towards certain conditions and the ‘acceptable comfort level’ of the tourist. Under future warming scenarios, tourism will undoubtedly be impacted by increases in both mean and extreme temperatures, as well as changes in precipitation, humidity and sunshine duration. Here, we looked at an approach for assessing the impact of the future climate on tourist destination favourability, through calculation of the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI). This is an established measure that links physical climate with human comfort to assess destination favourability for tourism. Here, for the first time, we presented an overview of the TCI method and its application to UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate model data. In order to capture the range of physical climate impacts on holiday-makers, the TCI is calculated from a variety of meteorological variables, providing a single score that can be used to make objective comparisons. Not all of the required variables are included within these data sets, adding a layer of complexity to the TCI calculation; the approach for the derivation of these variables from the available climate model data is described and explained. The work provides an update to previous literature studies by using the latest climate projections. Through the application to such climate projections, it is possible to use TCI as an objective comparator between different seasons, geographical regions, warming scenarios and time periods to understand the differences in favourability to tourists. The use of these results are deemed particularly relevant for those responsible for the wider planning of the sector – not limited to those in hospitality, recreation, and transport
TITLE: Comparing different methods for detecting Atmospheric Blocking
SPEAKER: Mr Charlie Suitters, University of Reading
ABSTRACT: Atmospheric blocking is the term given to the circulation pattern that describes a persistent, quasi-stationary anticyclone, typically found in the mid- and high-latitudes. Blocks prevent the usual eastward passage of extratropical cyclones and are associated with prolonged periods of suppressed precipitation, weak winds, and often extreme temperature anomalies. Despite their obvious impact on society, the mechanisms contributing to their lifecycle are still not fully understood. This is partly due to the lack of an objective blocking definition and the existence of many methods to identify blocks in reanalysis, numerical weather prediction (NWP) and global climate models (GCMs). Blocks can take on a range of different signature shapes within their lifetime, adding another complexity to their detection. This work explores the representation of blocking using two contrasting methods of detection in reanalysis. Each method demonstrates that climatological blocking activity maxima in the Northern Hemisphere are found over the North Atlantic, Europe, Greenland, and the North Pacific; and that in the hemispheric mean, blocking is most common in winter. However, each blocking detection method varies in the frequency of blocked days in each region, with methods detecting blocking using anomaly fields of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) recording around twice as much blocking as a method using meridional Z500 gradient reversals. Case study events are also examined, where it is shown that Z500 blocking signatures can change throughout the event. This dynamic behaviour of blocking leads to discrepancies in detection using each method. This work highlights the shortcomings in using a single detection method when studying atmospheric blocking, suggesting a combination of methods may be better suited to capture a range of different blocking scenarios.
The meeting opened at 5:50 pm for attendees to join and the event started promptly at 6 pm. Megan Pearce is the first speaker and talked for 25 minutes followed by 5 minutes for questions. Charlie Suitters began his talk at 6:30 pm and his presentation lasted for 25 minutes with 5 minutes for questions.