Weather and Climate Hazards: Emerging and Compound Risks
LOCATION
Virtual - Hosted on Zoom
This webinar will be an opportunity for weather and climate scientists, catastrophe modellers, and those in the insurance industry to gain an insight into the latest research on the modelling, representation, and impact of weather and climate hazards around the globe. In recent years, there has been a pattern for so-called ‘secondary perils’ (e.g. severe convective storms), which traditionally result in small-medium sized losses, to cause >50% of total insured losses, demonstrating their potential for significant socio-economic impact. Losses can also be amplified through events occurring serially in time or in multiple locations, known as compound (or correlated) risks. As the climate changes, a greater understanding of these phenomena is required, therefore this webinar will focus on these emerging risks.
This webinar will highlight areas of active collaboration between the insurance sector and academia and how cutting-edge research has an application in day-to-day business. Three speakers will give 15-minute presentations on their latest work, followed by a short Q&A. The webinar will conclude with a panel discussion featuring the speakers and led by members of the RMetS Insurance Special Interest Group.
Speakers
COMPFLOOD – compound flooding in the past and future Mekong River delta
Dr Melissa Wood, Research Scientist – Storm Surge Modeller, National Oceanography Centre
The aim of the COMPFLOOD project was to better understand what happens when there is compound flooding around the Mekong River delta, Vietnam, driven by the co-occurrence of extreme sea levels (due to storm surges, forced by tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea) and high flows in the Mekong River. We modelled this combination of events for a past-present (1980-2017) climate, and a SSP5-8.5 future (a ‘worst case scenario’, 2015-2050) climate. The results provide some valuable insight into the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone driven compound flood risk, today and over the next ~30 years. This includes the locations where we should put more effort into defining the hazard, or into raising the standard of flood defences in the short to medium term to protect lives, land, and livelihoods.
Dr Melissa Wood currently works at the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, as a Research Scientist specialising in modelling storm surge and extreme sea levels around the UK. Before this she worked as a coastal flood modeller and researcher on Prof. Ivan Haigh’s COMPFLOOD project at the University of Southampton. Her background before academia was in environmental and engineering consultancy as a chartered hydrologist and river modeller - working on flood risk assessments, sustainable drainage systems, and environmental strategies for infrastructure and building projects.
Validating US Severe Convective Storm Risk Models – 5 ways to be wrong
Dr Chris Allen, Divisional Director, Model Research & Evaluation, Gallagher Re.
Annual severe convective storm (SCS) losses in the United States can rival or exceed losses from hurricanes. Risk models (e.g. catastrophe models) seek to quantify expected losses by explicitly modelling SCS hazard and damage. But modelling SCS is challenging, particularly given the complex nature of deep convection and the highly localized but severe impact tornadoes and large hail can have. Validating US SCS models is likewise challenging, even in the US—a region with some of the highest quality open-source data on the peril. Here I highlight five of the common pitfalls to avoid when validating SCS risk models, and suggest some approaches to address them.
Chris is a climate scientist at Gallagher Re where he leads the evaluation of catastrophe models for atmospheric perils. He obtained his PhD in climate science from Oxford University in 2015. He has been working in catastrophe modelling since then, with a particular fondness for severe convective storms and windstorms. As well as catastrophe model evaluation and adjustment projects, Chris regularly engages with academic partners on applied research.
Rising Impacts from Global Compound Weather Extremes?
Prof Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Director of ONE Planet Doctoral Training Programme, Director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience, Newcastle University
The devastating impacts of climate-driven hazards highlight the complexity of systemic interactions between different perils, and how these can compound, cascade and cross boundaries. Recent years have seen record shattering temperatures and precipitation events, coupled with wildfires, droughts, and floods across multiple regions. These connected events cause compounding impacts far greater than if the events had occurred in isolation. Current approaches to assessing and managing climate risks typically ignore these interactions, in part or in full. As a result, the magnitude and nature of risk can be significantly underestimated, thereby under-resourcing or misdirecting actions. The talk will describe global analyses of climate models and observational datasets that provide the state-of-the-art in understanding changes to extreme weather perils (rainfall, windstorms, hail, lightning) and their compounding effects with global warming. It will be argued that a shift in focus is needed towards examining events in the context of regimes and drivers which describe their causal pathways and sequencing. This systems framework across multiple perils and their compounding effects can help create physically plausible ‘storylines’ to help manage complex risks now and in the future.
Hayley J. Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University and Director of the Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience. Her research focuses on improved physical understanding of changing weather extremes and better projections for climate adaptation. She won the EGU’s Sergey Soloviev Medal in 2024, is an AGU Fellow and Royal Society Wolfson Research Fellow (2014-19). She is Chief Editor of Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Climate Studies and was Contributing Author to the IPCC WGI AR6. From 2021-2023, she was President of the British Hydrological Society, bridging between hydrological, meteorological and climate communities with her role on the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Science Review Group. She advises UK government on the Strategic Advisory Board for the RESAS Division in Scotland and on the DESNZ Science Expert Group. She is passionate about engagement, leads several co-created projects with industry, and regularly delivers lectures and school events to engage the public on the climate crisis.
This webinar will be an opportunity for weather and climate scientists, catastrophe modellers, and those in the insurance industry to gain an insight into the latest research on the modelling, representation, and impact of weather and climate hazards around the globe. In recent years, there has been a pattern for so-called ‘secondary perils’ (e.g. severe convective storms), which traditionally result in small-medium sized losses, to cause >50% of total insured losses, demonstrating their potential for significant socio-economic impact. Losses can also be amplified through events occurring serially in time or in multiple locations, known as compound (or correlated) risks. As the climate changes, a greater understanding of these phenomena is required, therefore this webinar will focus on these emerging risks.
This webinar will highlight areas of active collaboration between the insurance sector and academia and how cutting-edge research has an application in day-to-day business. Three speakers will give 15-minute presentations on their latest work, followed by a short Q&A. The webinar will conclude with a panel discussion featuring the speakers and led by members of the RMetS Insurance Special Interest Group.
Speakers
COMPFLOOD – compound flooding in the past and future Mekong River delta
Dr Melissa Wood, Research Scientist – Storm Surge Modeller, National Oceanography Centre
The aim of the COMPFLOOD project was to better understand what happens when there is compound flooding around the Mekong River delta, Vietnam, driven by the co-occurrence of extreme sea levels (due to storm surges, forced by tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea) and high flows in the Mekong River. We modelled this combination of events for a past-present (1980-2017) climate, and a SSP5-8.5 future (a ‘worst case scenario’, 2015-2050) climate. The results provide some valuable insight into the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone driven compound flood risk, today and over the next ~30 years. This includes the locations where we should put more effort into defining the hazard, or into raising the standard of flood defences in the short to medium term to protect lives, land, and livelihoods.
Dr Melissa Wood currently works at the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, as a Research Scientist specialising in modelling storm surge and extreme sea levels around the UK. Before this she worked as a coastal flood modeller and researcher on Prof. Ivan Haigh’s COMPFLOOD project at the University of Southampton. Her background before academia was in environmental and engineering consultancy as a chartered hydrologist and river modeller - working on flood risk assessments, sustainable drainage systems, and environmental strategies for infrastructure and building projects.
Validating US Severe Convective Storm Risk Models – 5 ways to be wrong
Dr Chris Allen, Divisional Director, Model Research & Evaluation, Gallagher Re.
Annual severe convective storm (SCS) losses in the United States can rival or exceed losses from hurricanes. Risk models (e.g. catastrophe models) seek to quantify expected losses by explicitly modelling SCS hazard and damage. But modelling SCS is challenging, particularly given the complex nature of deep convection and the highly localized but severe impact tornadoes and large hail can have. Validating US SCS models is likewise challenging, even in the US—a region with some of the highest quality open-source data on the peril. Here I highlight five of the common pitfalls to avoid when validating SCS risk models, and suggest some approaches to address them.
Chris is a climate scientist at Gallagher Re where he leads the evaluation of catastrophe models for atmospheric perils. He obtained his PhD in climate science from Oxford University in 2015. He has been working in catastrophe modelling since then, with a particular fondness for severe convective storms and windstorms. As well as catastrophe model evaluation and adjustment projects, Chris regularly engages with academic partners on applied research.
Rising Impacts from Global Compound Weather Extremes?
Prof Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Director of ONE Planet Doctoral Training Programme, Director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience, Newcastle University
The devastating impacts of climate-driven hazards highlight the complexity of systemic interactions between different perils, and how these can compound, cascade and cross boundaries. Recent years have seen record shattering temperatures and precipitation events, coupled with wildfires, droughts, and floods across multiple regions. These connected events cause compounding impacts far greater than if the events had occurred in isolation. Current approaches to assessing and managing climate risks typically ignore these interactions, in part or in full. As a result, the magnitude and nature of risk can be significantly underestimated, thereby under-resourcing or misdirecting actions. The talk will describe global analyses of climate models and observational datasets that provide the state-of-the-art in understanding changes to extreme weather perils (rainfall, windstorms, hail, lightning) and their compounding effects with global warming. It will be argued that a shift in focus is needed towards examining events in the context of regimes and drivers which describe their causal pathways and sequencing. This systems framework across multiple perils and their compounding effects can help create physically plausible ‘storylines’ to help manage complex risks now and in the future.
Hayley J. Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University and Director of the Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience. Her research focuses on improved physical understanding of changing weather extremes and better projections for climate adaptation. She won the EGU’s Sergey Soloviev Medal in 2024, is an AGU Fellow and Royal Society Wolfson Research Fellow (2014-19). She is Chief Editor of Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Climate Studies and was Contributing Author to the IPCC WGI AR6. From 2021-2023, she was President of the British Hydrological Society, bridging between hydrological, meteorological and climate communities with her role on the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Science Review Group. She advises UK government on the Strategic Advisory Board for the RESAS Division in Scotland and on the DESNZ Science Expert Group. She is passionate about engagement, leads several co-created projects with industry, and regularly delivers lectures and school events to engage the public on the climate crisis.
