Chaos and Confidence in Weather Forecasting.

Date: Wednesday 14 December 2016

Time: 14:00 - 18:00

Location: 

Imperial College London
Exhibition Road
London
SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Email: 

meetings@rmets.org

Chaos leads to uncertainty in weather forecasts which grows the further into the future we try to predict. This meeting aims to discuss how chaos is taken into account in order to assign confidence levels (and probabilities) to weather forecasts. The meeting also aims to discuss how such "probabilistic" forecasts are assessed, and how they can be used by industry and the public.

This meeting will be accessible to a broad audience.

Come along to our Christmas meeting and enjoy networking, mince pies and mulled wine.


COMPETITION | Can you think of a good way to portray confidence and uncertainty to the users of weather forecasts?

Submit your idea by 10am on Monday 28th November 2016 and BBC Weather Presenter John Hammond will help us judge the best entry at the end of the day. The prize for the best entry is a guided tour of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Further details can be found in the competition information file and in the excel file of tabulated data.


This meeting will take place in Blackett Lecture Theatre 1. 

The Blackett Lecture Theatre is on the South Kensington Campus of Imperial College. From South Kensington Station, the campus is only a five minute walk. Either follow the subway signposted to the museums or walk north up Exhibition Road. The College is next to the Science Museum.

Car parking at South Kensington Campus is severely restricted . Parking in the streets surrounding the College is at pay and display or parking meters for limited periods only.

A map of the campus can be found in the meeting resources listed below.  Blackett Lecture Theatre is number 6 on the map.


This meeting is supported by the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Envrionment, Imperial College London

and the

Environmental Physics Group and is part of the Royal Meteorological Society National Meetings programme.

 


Remote Participation (CloudCast) (simultaneous audio and PowerPoint presentations) is available at this meeting. Access to the web conferencing is free and is open to members and non members but requires prior registration.


 

Resources

PROGRAMME, ABSTRACTS & BIOGRAPHIES

Maps & Directions

COMPETITION

Programme: 

Session 1 ( C&C)

14th Dec 2016 14:00 - 15:35
Session Chair: Anna Ghelli
Show session schedule
TimeTitleSpeaker
14:00WelcomeDr A Ghelli
14:05Chaos in weather forecastingProf L Smith
14:35The science of chaos and modelling of uncertaintyProf T Palmer
15:05Evaluating forecast confidenceDr M J Rodwell

Session 2 (C&C)

14th Dec 2016 16:20 - 17:40
Session Chair: Anna Ghelli
Show session schedule
TimeTitleSpeaker
16:20Working with uncertainty.Dr I Finney FRMetS
16:50Confidence in weather forecastsMr J Hammond