hurricane michael

Hurricane Michael devastates American Panhandle.

In late May, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that the 2018 hurricane season would be average or slightly above average. Specifically, the forecast had a 70% chance of between five and nine hurricanes, comprising 10 to 16 named storms.

In early August, NOAA revised the forecast, saying the season was shaping up to be below average. One reason for the change was because of predictions that El Niño might emerge during the latter half of the hurricane season, which would have reduced the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin during October and November.

An El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is a warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which can lead to stronger than average upper-level winds and, therefore, strong wind shear over parts of the Atlantic Ocean can reduce the number of tropical cyclones in this area.

However, an El Niño event now looks more likely to form in late autumn and persist over the winter months. And although wind shear has impeded the development of tropical cyclones across the Caribbean, warmer than average sea temperatures in the North Atlantic have meant tropical cyclones have developed and tracked further north, i.e. Tropical Storm Debby, Tropical Storm Ernesto and Hurricane Leslie, or had unusual tracks like Hurricane Florence. As a result, this year is the first on record to see six subtropical storms.

In October, Hurricane Michael became the second major hurricane of the season and the third-most intense hurricane to make landfall in the US regarding surface pressure values, behind the 1935 Labour Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille in 1969. The American national government declared a major disaster following the devastation caused by Michael for areas of north Florida. It issued lower-level emergency declarations for parts of Georgia and Alabama. Towns like Mexico Beach suffered widespread damage following the destructive winds and heavy rain. At least 18 people lost their lives, and many people were without clean water or electricity.

The precursory low to Michael caused significant flooding across Central America before developing near western Cuba and intensifying further, and tracking north towards the American panhandle. Shortly after making landfall, it was downgraded to a Tropical Cyclone and travelled up the east coast bringing heavy rain to eastern New Jersey and southern New England. In addition, gale force winds were felt in southeastern Virginia. 

Picture: NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided this visible image of Hurricane Michael after it made landfall in the Florida panhandle on Oct. 10. The image revealed high clouds over the eye, located in the panhandle. Michael’s extent covered Alabama, the western half of Georgia and the northern half of Florida.

Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)/ NOAA

Categories: Weather
Tags: Extreme Weather Hurricanes Storms WorldWeather

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