Winter wildfires signal new era of threat in California's fire season
In January 2025, Southern California experienced its most devastating winter fires in more than four decades. The Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire are eye-openers to the fast-moving, destructive potential of winter wildfires.
More than 5,300 structures have been damaged or destroyed in the Palisades Fire, Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a media briefing on 9 January 2025. And the Eaton Fire has destroyed over 5,000 structures. These numbers could change depending on additional mapping and surveying, but these fires are some of the most destructive in California history.
California's biggest wildfires tend to occur mid-summer or in the fall. The Camp Fire, which began in November 2018, is California's deadliest and most destructive. The fire took 85 lives and destroyed 18,804 structures. The August Complex Fire, which began in August 2020, tore through 1,032,648 acres.
The only California winter fire ranking in the Top 20 before this firestorm was the Thomas Fire, which began in December 2017. It took two lives and destroyed 281,893 acres and 1,063 structures.
The environment was primed for January 2025's destructive fire behavior given the slow start to the rainy season. A developing weather pattern on 7 January brought strong offshore, dry winds. In Southern California, these are called Santa Ana winds since they blow out of the desert through the Santa Ana Canyon.
California has two distinct periods of wet and dry weather. The wet season typically begins in November and ends in April. The dry season runs from May until late October. Those timeframes can vary though, with the very wet northern border 780 miles away from the dry southern border.
This stark difference in climate has been centre stage for how California's wildfire peak season doesn't follow the calendar.
Dr Neil Lareau is an associate professor of atmospheric science in the department of physics at the University of Nevada, Reno. His research focuses on how fires can generate their own weather and the uptick in these sorts of conditions. He says specifically for winter fires, it boils down to the timing of transition from months of dry weather to frequent precipitation.
find out why these winter fires are a wake up call with the three big take-aways from our conversation:
WINTER WINDS ARE STRONGER
Q: What is the difference between a late summer, early fall event compared to the middle of winter?
A: Sometimes, during the middle of the winter, the winds are stronger and sometimes that's not a problem because we've already had rainfall. But these winter storm systems, they have a stronger jet stream to work with usually and the atmosphere is a little more revved up. And so, we can actually generate stronger winds sometimes in the middle of the winter than we would in the fall.
We think about those fall events, they certainly can have very strong winds and devastating impacts, but you know, in a typical year, we certainly hope that we get some rainfall by now that suppresses some of those fire conditions. And again, unfortunately that has not been the case this year across Southern California.
THIS WINTER VARIABILITY IS ON STERIODS
Q: How has the weather pattern impacted the fires burning in Southern California?
A: We really saw this event coming in advance. It was really well advertised in the weather forecast models that we'd be looking at these Santa Ana winds, and really the kind of upper end version of those winds, where we have really strong upper level winds crossing from east to west out of the the Great Basin and moving offshore, and that really set the stage for the unfortunate events that are unfolding.
But maybe even more so, you know, the profound lack of any sort of rainfall across Southern California. We have this huge disparity between Northern California and Southern California this year as far as total rain, where we're looking at values of 1-10% of the the typical amount of rain that Southern California would have gotten. So, when the winds get here and the fuels are that dry it's really an explosive mixture.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
Q: What is the impact from climate change and how does the fire future look in California?
A: Unfortunately, the future looks like a future with more fire than the environment that we have now. And underlying that is basically that warming and drying signal that we see especially in the summer and moving into into the fall. And so again it really underscores the need to to figure out how to build our communities to live with the fire because it's not going anywhere soon.
Fuel management and fuel reduction is going to play a major role in that in communities throughout California, whether it's in Northern California or Southern California. But also then hardening communities so that they can withstand the impact of some of these fires.
I think it's really on everybody's radar now what a profound societal challenge this is. It's kind of become the major societal threat living here in in California, and so I think the interest in and willingness to rally the troops to address these issues, especially when it comes to putting more prescribed fire and fuel reduction work.
I think that that energy is there and I think the challenge for us is really following through on that to make sure these events don't go as bad as as these ones have.
About the author
Monica Woods is the Chief Meteorologist at ABC10 in Sacramento, California. Prior to joining ABC10, Monica was with ABC10's sister station, WXIA-TV in Atlanta, Georgia.
Monica is a member of the National Weather Association and holds the NWA Seal of Approval. She is a former president of the local chapter of the American Meteorology Society, which is comprised of current and former area weather professionals. She was also a weekly volunteer at the Sacramento office of the National Weather Service, where she helped compile statistical data for new forecasting areas.
Monica served on the Board of Directors and was elected vice president for Solar Cookers International, a non-profit organization that spreads solar cooking awareness and skills worldwide. She also served a term as president of Big Brothers/Big Sisters of Greater Sacramento, and sat on the organization's Board of Directors for three years.
You can email Meteorologist Monica Woods at mwoods@abc10.com or follow her on Facebook.
