Future Changes of ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Teleconnection over Tropics and Subtropics

Abstract: The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of inter-annual climate variability, driven by ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific that alternate between the warm (El-Niño) and cold (La-Niña) phases over a 3-7 year cycle. With increasing greenhouse gases ENSO teleconnections are projected to change in future global warming scenarios. Land surface temperature and precipitation teleconnections are projected to change over more than 50% of global land regions by the end of the 21st century. Most land regions show a significant amplification of the teleconnection. This presentation will examine how the teleconnections are projected to change over the tropics and subtropics and how dynamic and thermodynamic components contribute to these changes. We have considered 25 CMIP6 model datasets to analyse the teleconnection changes and got an initial idea of how dynamic and thermodynamic processes influence the Precipitation – Evaporation (P-E) over tropics and subtropics.This will lead into future work using a linear baroclinic model to improve the understanding of changes in dynamical ENSO teleconnection processes over the tropics and subtropics. For example, how does the projected eastward shift of the equatorial Pacific ENSO precipitation anomalies influence the changes in precipitation and temperature teleconnections over tropical and sub-tropical land regions.

Biography: I'm Dhruba Jyoti Goswami, a PhD student at the University of Exeter. I hold a Master’s degree in Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, which sparked my interest in pursuing research in large-scale climate dynamics. My current PhD research focuses on how future changes in ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) teleconnections could influence global precipitation patterns, particularly over land. I'm especially interested in the role of dynamical changes in ENSO teleconnections and their global impacts. Prior to this, I worked on the Indian summer monsoon, exploring large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions linked to multidecadal monsoon variability and examining the regional onset of the monsoon over Northeast India.