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Forecast
Forecast
National Meetings

Challenging Forecasts, Difficult Decisions

DATE

Wednesday 7 December 2022
14:00 - 17:40

Add Event to Calendar: Google

LOCATION

ECMWF
Shinfield Road
Shinfield
Reading
Berkshire
RG2 9AX
United Kingdom

Have you ever wondered what goes into a weather warning and what to do if one is issued? The prospect of extreme weather leaves users with difficult decisions. At the same time, predicting extreme weather can be a challenge in itself. Here, we explored the impacts and user-decisions associated with extreme weather, and the methods and issues in predicting the likelihood of such events. These two strands of enquiry meet as axes in "Impact-Likelihood" warning matricies, such as those issued by the Met Office. Following the talks, the audience got their chance to participate in a "Live Science" event, where we explored a real case as it unfolds, and issued our own warnings. Being our Christmas National Meeting, there was festive refreshments during the interval.

Registration

REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED. 

 

Programme

Agenda

7th Dec 2022 14:00 - 17:40
Session Chair: Liz Bentley

Session schedule

Hide
Time Title Speaker
14:00 Welcome and Opening Remarks Prof L Bentley FRMetS
14:10 When Will Santa Get To My House? A Tale of Forecast Uncertainty Dr C J Morcrette FRMetS
14:40 Multi-Scale Predictions of Extremes - Current Capabilities and Limitations of a Global Ensemble System Dr L. Magnusson
15:10 Impacts and User-Decisions Associated with Extreme Weather Prof B D Haddock FRMetS
15:40 Festive Refreshment Break - - -
16:10 The Met Office's Impact-Likelihood Warning Matrix - Yellow, Amber or Red? Ms R C Sherwin FRMetS CMet
16:40 Live Science Event: Issuing a Weather Warning, Mark Rodwell, ECMWF and Keith Williams, Met Office
17:40 Meeting Close - - -

Recordings

Resources

Programme
Abstracts and Biographies
pdf 131.96 KB
Programme
pdf 61.17 KB

Have you ever wondered what goes into a weather warning and what to do if one is issued? The prospect of extreme weather leaves users with difficult decisions. At the same time, predicting extreme weather can be a challenge in itself. Here, we explored the impacts and user-decisions associated with extreme weather, and the methods and issues in predicting the likelihood of such events. These two strands of enquiry meet as axes in "Impact-Likelihood" warning matricies, such as those issued by the Met Office. Following the talks, the audience got their chance to participate in a "Live Science" event, where we explored a real case as it unfolds, and issued our own warnings. Being our Christmas National Meeting, there was festive refreshments during the interval.

Registration

REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED. 

 

Programme

Agenda

7th Dec 2022 14:00 - 17:40
Session Chair: Liz Bentley

Session schedule

Hide
Time Title Speaker
14:00 Welcome and Opening Remarks Prof L Bentley FRMetS
14:10 When Will Santa Get To My House? A Tale of Forecast Uncertainty Dr C J Morcrette FRMetS
14:40 Multi-Scale Predictions of Extremes - Current Capabilities and Limitations of a Global Ensemble System Dr L. Magnusson
15:10 Impacts and User-Decisions Associated with Extreme Weather Prof B D Haddock FRMetS
15:40 Festive Refreshment Break - - -
16:10 The Met Office's Impact-Likelihood Warning Matrix - Yellow, Amber or Red? Ms R C Sherwin FRMetS CMet
16:40 Live Science Event: Issuing a Weather Warning, Mark Rodwell, ECMWF and Keith Williams, Met Office
17:40 Meeting Close - - -

Recordings

DATE

Wednesday 7 December 2022
14:00 - 17:40

Add Event to Calendar: Google

LOCATION

ECMWF
Shinfield Road
Shinfield
Reading
Berkshire
RG2 9AX
United Kingdom

Resources

Programme
Abstracts and Biographies
pdf 131.96 KB
Programme
pdf 61.17 KB
Print to PDF

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