

Challenging Forecasts, Difficult Decisions
LOCATION
Shinfield Road
Shinfield
Reading
Berkshire
RG2 9AX
United Kingdom
Have you ever wondered what goes into a weather warning and what to do if one is issued? The prospect of extreme weather leaves users with difficult decisions. At the same time, predicting extreme weather can be a challenge in itself. Here, we explored the impacts and user-decisions associated with extreme weather, and the methods and issues in predicting the likelihood of such events. These two strands of enquiry meet as axes in "Impact-Likelihood" warning matricies, such as those issued by the Met Office. Following the talks, the audience got their chance to participate in a "Live Science" event, where we explored a real case as it unfolds, and issued our own warnings. Being our Christmas National Meeting, there was festive refreshments during the interval.
Registration
REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED.
Agenda
7th Dec 2022 14:00 - 17:40
Session Chair: Liz Bentley
Session schedule
HideTime | Title | Speaker |
---|---|---|
14:00 | Welcome and Opening Remarks | Prof L Bentley FRMetS |
14:10 | When Will Santa Get To My House? A Tale of Forecast Uncertainty | Dr C J Morcrette FRMetS |
14:40 | Multi-Scale Predictions of Extremes - Current Capabilities and Limitations of a Global Ensemble System | Dr L. Magnusson |
15:10 | Impacts and User-Decisions Associated with Extreme Weather | Prof B D Haddock FRMetS |
15:40 | Festive Refreshment Break | - - - |
16:10 | The Met Office's Impact-Likelihood Warning Matrix - Yellow, Amber or Red? | Ms R C Sherwin FRMetS CMet |
16:40 | Live Science Event: Issuing a Weather Warning, Mark Rodwell, ECMWF and Keith Williams, Met Office | |
17:40 | Meeting Close | - - - |
Recordings
Resources
Have you ever wondered what goes into a weather warning and what to do if one is issued? The prospect of extreme weather leaves users with difficult decisions. At the same time, predicting extreme weather can be a challenge in itself. Here, we explored the impacts and user-decisions associated with extreme weather, and the methods and issues in predicting the likelihood of such events. These two strands of enquiry meet as axes in "Impact-Likelihood" warning matricies, such as those issued by the Met Office. Following the talks, the audience got their chance to participate in a "Live Science" event, where we explored a real case as it unfolds, and issued our own warnings. Being our Christmas National Meeting, there was festive refreshments during the interval.
Registration
REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED.
Agenda
7th Dec 2022 14:00 - 17:40
Session Chair: Liz Bentley
Session schedule
HideTime | Title | Speaker |
---|---|---|
14:00 | Welcome and Opening Remarks | Prof L Bentley FRMetS |
14:10 | When Will Santa Get To My House? A Tale of Forecast Uncertainty | Dr C J Morcrette FRMetS |
14:40 | Multi-Scale Predictions of Extremes - Current Capabilities and Limitations of a Global Ensemble System | Dr L. Magnusson |
15:10 | Impacts and User-Decisions Associated with Extreme Weather | Prof B D Haddock FRMetS |
15:40 | Festive Refreshment Break | - - - |
16:10 | The Met Office's Impact-Likelihood Warning Matrix - Yellow, Amber or Red? | Ms R C Sherwin FRMetS CMet |
16:40 | Live Science Event: Issuing a Weather Warning, Mark Rodwell, ECMWF and Keith Williams, Met Office | |
17:40 | Meeting Close | - - - |