Challenging Forecasts, Difficult Decisions

Have you ever wondered what goes into a weather warning and what to do if one is issued? The prospect of extreme weather leaves users with difficult decisions. At the same time, predicting extreme weather can be a challenge in itself. Here, we explore the impacts and user-decisions associated with extreme weather, and the methods and issues in predicting the likelihood of such events. These two strands of enquiry meet as axes in "Impact-Likelihood" warning matricies, such as those issued by the Met Office. Following the talks, the audience will get their chance to participate in a "Live Science" event, where we hope to explore a real case as it unfolds, and issue our own warnings. Being our Christmas National Meeting, there will be festive refreshments during the interval.