Seasonal Forecasts and Their Use in the Energy Sector
LOCATION
This free virtual event brought together weather and climate scientists, operational seasonal forecasters and representatives from across the energy sector to discuss how seasonal forecasts are used in the energy sector, and take a look to the 2022/23 winter seasonal forecast.
Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office, introduced what a seasonal forecast is, what uncertainties are associated with them and how they have improved over the last few decades. He then examined the 2022/23 winter seasonal forecast from the Met Office and other leading seasonal forecast providers. This was followed by short responses from a range of energy sector representatives, including traders, suppliers and system operators. These responders explained how seasonal forecasts are used at their organisations, how they deal with changes in the forecasts, and what the latest seasonal forecast may mean for their work. There was then be the opportunity for questions from and discussion with the audience.
Seasonal forecasts have inherent uncertainty, and different models give different forecasts, so there was a discussion of the errors involved in long-range forecasting, including how the energy sector can account for this.
Recording
Please note: This particular event will only be recorded for archival purposes. The recording will not be available to share post-event. Please ensure when you register that you can attend the live webinar, where you will have the opportunity to ask questions in a safe environment.
Registration
REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED
Read the full event report, including the seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter.
Biographies
Adam Scaife
Principal Fellow and Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction, Met Office
Professor, Dept of Mathematics, University of Exeter
Adam leads research and production of long-range forecasts at the Met Office and is a Professor at the University of Exeter. His group issues climate forecasts on a regular basis and carries out research to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. Adam's personal research is focused on mechanisms, modelling and predictability of regional climate. His research group recently demonstrated skilful seasonal prediction of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation and European winters. In recent years, Adam was awarded the Royal Meteorological Society’s Buchan prize and the Institute of Physics Edward Appleton Medal.
Rebecca Jones
Rebecca has worked for bp for 12 years, always as a meteorologist based in Europe and is currently VP Weather & Climate, leading a global team of meteorologists with bp’s Trading Analytics & Insights group in the Trading and Shipping division. The role here involves keeping abreast of global forecasts, primarily in North America, NW Europe and NE Asia throughout the year to see how supply and demand of gas and power, as well as oil and low carbon products will fluctuate with the daily weather forecasts and what the tone is for each season according to the seasonal outlooks.
Prior to bp Rebecca worked at a private weather company forecasting for the Aviation, Media, Utility and Energy industries after completing here MSc in Applied Meteorology at Reading University.
Laurent Dubus
Laurent Dubus is a senior scientist for weather and climate applications with RTE, the French Transmission System Operator. He is working on long-term power system prospective, resilience to climate change and short-term forecasts. His activities are dedicated to improving the effective integration of high-quality weather and climate information into energy sector planning, risk management and operational activities, to facilitate the energy transition towards net zero emissions targets. He has skills and experience in climate system modelling, weather and climate forecasts, power systems management and climate services design and development. He is also a co-founder and non-executive Director of the World Energy & Meteorology Council.
He holds an engineering degree in Marine Environment and a PhD in Physical Oceanography.
Peter McAward
Peter McAward is a meteorologist and professional weather forecaster for SSE and has been forecasting the weather in various industries for the past 13 years. This includes aviation forecasts and observations for both military and civilians for locations around the globe, media forecasting for the BBC, road condition forecasts for winter road maintenance and safety, and forecasting for energy companies. Peter is a certified weather observer from the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States, and earned an MMet from the University of Reading.
Lucy Field
Lucy Field has over 25 years’ experience in the energy business. She is AFRY Management Consulting’s Senior Gas Market Expert, responsible for AFRY’s models of the UK and Europe’s gas markets.In 2022, Lucy has led security of gas supply studies for the UK government, German utilities and European gas transportation operators – all focussing on the curtailment of Russian gas and outlook for EU gas markets in general.
This free virtual event brought together weather and climate scientists, operational seasonal forecasters and representatives from across the energy sector to discuss how seasonal forecasts are used in the energy sector, and take a look to the 2022/23 winter seasonal forecast.
Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office, introduced what a seasonal forecast is, what uncertainties are associated with them and how they have improved over the last few decades. He then examined the 2022/23 winter seasonal forecast from the Met Office and other leading seasonal forecast providers. This was followed by short responses from a range of energy sector representatives, including traders, suppliers and system operators. These responders explained how seasonal forecasts are used at their organisations, how they deal with changes in the forecasts, and what the latest seasonal forecast may mean for their work. There was then be the opportunity for questions from and discussion with the audience.
Seasonal forecasts have inherent uncertainty, and different models give different forecasts, so there was a discussion of the errors involved in long-range forecasting, including how the energy sector can account for this.
Recording
Please note: This particular event will only be recorded for archival purposes. The recording will not be available to share post-event. Please ensure when you register that you can attend the live webinar, where you will have the opportunity to ask questions in a safe environment.
Registration
REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED
Read the full event report, including the seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter.
Biographies
Adam Scaife
Principal Fellow and Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction, Met Office
Professor, Dept of Mathematics, University of Exeter
Adam leads research and production of long-range forecasts at the Met Office and is a Professor at the University of Exeter. His group issues climate forecasts on a regular basis and carries out research to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. Adam's personal research is focused on mechanisms, modelling and predictability of regional climate. His research group recently demonstrated skilful seasonal prediction of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation and European winters. In recent years, Adam was awarded the Royal Meteorological Society’s Buchan prize and the Institute of Physics Edward Appleton Medal.
Rebecca Jones
Rebecca has worked for bp for 12 years, always as a meteorologist based in Europe and is currently VP Weather & Climate, leading a global team of meteorologists with bp’s Trading Analytics & Insights group in the Trading and Shipping division. The role here involves keeping abreast of global forecasts, primarily in North America, NW Europe and NE Asia throughout the year to see how supply and demand of gas and power, as well as oil and low carbon products will fluctuate with the daily weather forecasts and what the tone is for each season according to the seasonal outlooks.
Prior to bp Rebecca worked at a private weather company forecasting for the Aviation, Media, Utility and Energy industries after completing here MSc in Applied Meteorology at Reading University.
Laurent Dubus
Laurent Dubus is a senior scientist for weather and climate applications with RTE, the French Transmission System Operator. He is working on long-term power system prospective, resilience to climate change and short-term forecasts. His activities are dedicated to improving the effective integration of high-quality weather and climate information into energy sector planning, risk management and operational activities, to facilitate the energy transition towards net zero emissions targets. He has skills and experience in climate system modelling, weather and climate forecasts, power systems management and climate services design and development. He is also a co-founder and non-executive Director of the World Energy & Meteorology Council.
He holds an engineering degree in Marine Environment and a PhD in Physical Oceanography.
Peter McAward
Peter McAward is a meteorologist and professional weather forecaster for SSE and has been forecasting the weather in various industries for the past 13 years. This includes aviation forecasts and observations for both military and civilians for locations around the globe, media forecasting for the BBC, road condition forecasts for winter road maintenance and safety, and forecasting for energy companies. Peter is a certified weather observer from the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States, and earned an MMet from the University of Reading.
Lucy Field
Lucy Field has over 25 years’ experience in the energy business. She is AFRY Management Consulting’s Senior Gas Market Expert, responsible for AFRY’s models of the UK and Europe’s gas markets.In 2022, Lucy has led security of gas supply studies for the UK government, German utilities and European gas transportation operators – all focussing on the curtailment of Russian gas and outlook for EU gas markets in general.
